18 March - Update: Current threat level in the Strait of Hormuz
EOS Risk Group have today issued an updated advisory, set out below. With thanks for their permission to publish.
Defer transit, adhere to IRGC evacuation warnings for ports in Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar
In response to Israeli strikes against Iran’s South Pars Gas Field, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued evacuation orders for four major energy facilities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, signalling a credible threat of retaliatory attacks.
The facilities under evacuation orders are:
- Samref Refinery, Yanbu, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Al-Hasan Gas Field, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Jubail Petrochemical Complex, Jubail, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Mesaieed Petrochemical Complex and Mesaieed Holding Company (affiliated with Chevron), 34km offshore Doha, Qatar
Haifa oil refineries, Israel
EOS Intelligence Assessment: Following airstrikes against Iran’s South Pars Gas Field and subsequent IRGC evacuation warnings, the risk rating for each location is now EXTREME (5/5). Residual risk remains HIGH at ALL Gulf ports.
Vessels are advised to defer port calls to the locations or evacuate ports and surrounding vicinities immediately beyond at least 50nm.
Iran has previously demonstrated both the intent and capability to conduct reciprocal strikes against Gulf state infrastructure following attacks on its own strategic assets. After a strike on its Qeshm desalination plant was supported from Bahrain, the IRGC announced retaliatory action against the United States NAVCENT in Bahrain. Within 24 hours, Bahraini authorities reported damage to a desalination plant from an Iranian drone strike.
Bahrain’s BAPCO declared force majeure after refinery facilities at Sitra and Al Maameer were struck following joint airstrikes against Iranian refineries in Tehran.
Additionally, following strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island oil export terminal, Iranian aligned activity targeted regional port infrastructure assessed to support energy export and logistics operations.