13 Mar, 2026

13 March - Update: Current threat level in the Strait of Hormuz

EOS Risk Group have today issued an updated advisory, set out below. With thanks for their permission to publish.

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· Continue to defer all transits via Strait of Hormuz.

· Reconsider port calls/anchorage at Fujairah (UAE), Khor Fakkan (UAE), Ruwais (UAE), Bahrain, Qatar.

· Defer calls to Salalah (Oman) and Basra Oil Terminal (Iraq).

· Monitor and adhere to local authorities’ guidance regarding Shelter in Place.

The risk to shipping in the Arabian Gulf (Persian Gulf), Gulf of Oman and at ports and anchorages in UAE TTW, Bahrain, Qatar and Iraq is HIGH (4/5) (an incident is likely).

Effective 17:00 UTC on 04 March onwards, risk to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is increased to EXTREME (5/5) (an incident is highly likely).

Port infrastructure at Yanbu is at increased risk of attack in the short term (<1 week). The risk to vessels calling at Yanbu is increased to SUBSTANTIAL (3/5) (an incident is a credible possibility) in the short term (<1 week).

As terminal and port operations for oil and gas remain largely suspended in the Arabian Gulf, increased traffic to alternative locations, notably Yanbu (Red Sea), is observed in the past 24 hours and is likely to continue, reflecting the port’s role as an alternative to Arabian Gulf terminals for access to oil and LPG from Saudi Arabia. Previously, on 05 March, in a meeting with the Saudi Arabia Ambassador, Pakistan’s Minister for Petroleum had requested Saudi Arabia to provide Pakistan’s oil supply via Yanbu.

Early on 12 March a building in the Dubai International Finance Centre district sustained minor damage in a drone strike; one drone was intercepted, causing damage to the facade of another.

Confirmed incidents: commercial vessels last 12 hours:

· NTR

Confirmed incidents: ports and critical infrastructure last 12 hours:

· An oil rig near Sharjah, UAE, sustained a drone strike, causing a large fire

· Saudi Arabia’s air defences intercepted and destroyed a drone over the Rub’ al Khali (Empty Desert Quarter) which was targeting the Shaybah oilfield (near to the border with the UAE) located approximately 220km south of Abu Dhabi

Port operations: status update

Bahrain – operations at Khalifa Bin Salman suspended on 12 and 13 March; Bapco refinery complex remains shut down; airspace closed

Iraq – Basra Oil Terminal and SPM Somo Terminal partially shut down; all other ports operational

Kuwait – all ports operational; vessels bound for Shuaiba must redirect to Shuwaikh for cargo discharge provided draught < 9.6M

Oman - Operations at Salalah suspended, port evacuated (precautionary measure); all other ports operational; vessels calling at Duqm must submit documents confirming No Dangerous Cargo onboard.

Qatar – Al Ruwais restricted for small craft only; QatarEnergy production suspended; Al Shaheen Terminal and Halul Island Terminal operations suspended; airspace remains closed; all other ports operational

Saudi Arabia – all ports operational

UAE – operations at Fujairah Oil Terminal remain partially suspended; All other UAE ports operational; severe electronic interference in vicinity of Fujairah. Cargo rerouting from Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi to Fujairah and Khor Al Fakkan.

EOS Intelligence Assessment: At least 22 commercial vessels have been attacked (or reported near miss) in the Strait of Hormuz, Arabian Gulf (Persian Gulf) and Gulf of Oman, since the onset of conflict on 28 February (20 confirmed incidents and two incidents with vessel details not yet confirmed by the authorities). Airstrikes by the US on ports in Iran in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz are highly likely in the short term (< 1 week). Energy infrastructure across the Arabian Peninsula and wider region is likely to remain a key target for Iran: further attacks on oil and gas terminals, fuel storage and dual-use (i.e. military / commercial) ports are highly likely in the short term (< 1 week). Following a drone strike on Dubai’s international finance district on 12 March, Iran may continue to attempt further attacks on other critical infrastructure (banks, financial services centres, data centres) in the short term (<1 week) with commensurate effect on travel and services outside of port areas. Shipping companies, operators and managers are advised to defer transit via the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. Assuming intent to do so, Iran likely cannot be completely prevented from laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and approaches. Vessels in the approaches to the Strait of Hormuz should keep non-essential crew clear off the upper deck, increase mine lookouts on the bridge and be prepared for short notice course/speed alterations. 