Update: Current Threat Level in the Strait of Hormuz
EOS Risk Group have today issued an updated advisory, set out below. With thanks for their permission to publish.
- Continue to defer transit of SOH.
- Reconsider port calls/anchorage at Fujairah, UAE, amid a shift by Iran towards targeting regional critical infrastructure.
- Monitor and adhere to local authorities' guidance regarding Shelter in Place.
The risk to shipping in the Arabian Gulf (Persian Gulf), Gulf of Oman and at ports and anchorages in UAE TTW is HIGH (4/5) (an incident is likely). Vessels should avoid loitering in the anchorage at Fujairah, UAE.
As of 17:00 UTC on 04 March the risk to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is increased to EXTREME (5/5) (an incident is highly likely).
Confirmed incidents: commercial vessels last 12 hours:
No new attacks on commercial vessels since 1800UTC 05 March
EOS Intelligence Assessment:
Shipping companies, operators and managers are advised to defer transit from the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. At least 13 commercial vessels have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, Arabian Gulf (Persian Gulf) and Gulf of Oman, since the onset of conflict on 28 February. Additional attacks against commercial shipping in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz remain highly likely in the near term, including misidentification events and collateral impacts in proximity to high density anchorage areas. EOS Risk Group assess the areas indicated in green on the map, below, as refuge zones that do not guarantee safety but may reduce the risk of direct or collateral damage in the event of further attacks launched from Iran.
Regional Update (06 March):
- On 06 March Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia, was targeted with 3 ballistic missiles, all of which were intercepted.
- The UAE and Kuwait intercepted drone and missile strikes on multiple locations.
- Qatar intercepted 13 missiles, of which one fell in Qatar TTW. In Bahrain, a hotel and two residential buildings were targeted.
- At least 8 major international energy companies have suspended operations at facilities in the Arabian Gulf (Persian Gulf) since 01 March. In the Mediterranean, operations in Israel's TTW remain suspended after Chevron was instructed to shut down the Leviathan gas field operations on 02 March.
- Israel continued airstrikes on Beirut, following an evacuation order issued on 05 March.
- Ukraine's President said that Ukraine is sending experts in drone warfare to the region in response to a request from the US, with a wider procurement indicated in the near-term for counter-drone defence in the Gulf region.
- Reports indicate that Gulf countries are running critically low on missile interceptors. The US has been asked to expedite resupply deliveries.
- Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and France are deploying assets to help defend Cyprus from attack. The UK destroyer HMS DRAGON is to be deployed to Cyprus but remains at Portsmouth as at 06 March.