Update: Current threat level in the Strait of Hormuz
Members are asked to note that EOS Risk Group have issued an advisory as of 3 March 2026 0800 UTC as follows:
EOS Risk Group
Continue to defer transit of SoH following IRGC warning the same is closed to ALL shipping. Monitor and adhere to local authorities’ guidance regarding Shelter in Place Maritime
Strait of Hormuz traffic has declined by approximately 80%. Only 28 vessels transited during the past 24-hour period compared to a baseline of 138. This reduction reflects commercial self-regulation rather than a formal legal closure. More vessels are transiting outbound than inbound.
Reports of potential mine-laying activity and explosive boats in the water have been received. However, no actual mine-laying has been observed by overhead surveillance assets to date.
Multiple small craft continue to operate in the area and are being monitored for any mine-laying activity.
NATO Shipping Centre has highlighted the historical risk of limpet mine attacks, particularly during night operations on vessels passing through the strait.
Vessels with U.S. or Israeli affiliation that are stationary, whether in port or at anchor, should strongly consider becoming more dynamic in their positioning (e.g., getting underway or repositioning). Based on recent attacks, being stationary appears to increase risk exposure for vessels that Iran may seek to target. This applies to flagged vessels first, but as with Houthi precedent, targeting may broaden to affiliated vessels over time.
Significant AIS, GPS, and communications interference continues throughout the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman. Masters should be prepared for degraded electronic navigation and communications systems and should employ traditional navigation methods as backup.
Confirmed maritime incidents
- On 01 March, UKMTO issued a warning of an attack 50 nautical miles north of Muscat, Oman, reporting that MKD VYOM (IMO 9284386) was struck by an unknown projectile above the waterline, with an initial engine room fire subsequently reported as under control. Additional reporting indicates MKD VYOM was attacked using a USV.
- On 01 March, UKMTO reported an incident 17 nautical miles northwest of Mina Saqr, United Arab Emirates, in which Gibraltar flagged HERCULES STAR (IMO 9916135) was struck by an unknown projectile, resulting in a fire that was later extinguished, with the vessel intending to continue its voyage. Reuters reporting and associated tracking based reporting have identified the vessel as, although attribution and circumstances remain unconfirmed.
- On 01 March, UKMTO also received a report that an unknown projectile exploded in very close proximity to a vessel 35 nautical miles west of Sharjah, United Arab Emirates, assessed as a near miss with crew reported safe.
- On 01 March Ocean Electra (IMO: 9402782) (UKMTO referred to the ship as STAR ELECTRA) to en route to Al-Hamriya port, Dubai, was reportedly struck by either a drone or missile near the Strait of Hormuz, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. The crew is safe, and Greek sources emphasized that the blow was not serious. So far, no damage has been found on the vessel.
- 01 March Palau flagged tanker SKYLIGHT, IMO 9330020, was attacked about five nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, with injuries reported and the crew evacuated, based on information attributed to Oman’s maritime security authorities.
EOS Intelligence Assessment: The risk to shipping in the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and at ports in UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Duqm, Salalah is HIGH (4/5). Shipping companies, operators and managers are advised to defer transit from the Strait of Hormuz until further notice. Additional attacks against commercial shipping in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz remain likely in the near term, including misidentification events and collateral impacts in proximity to high density anchorage areas. Airspace closures and aviation disruptions remain widespread, and governments across the region continue to issue shelter guidance as a protective measure against follow on strikes and interception debris.
Naval escort operations in the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely to provide a viable near term solution.
Current Iranian anti-ship capability is significantly more advanced and layered. Modern anti ship cruise missiles operate as true sea skimmers, incorporate terminal manoeuvring, and are equipped with electronic protection measures designed to degrade both hard kill and soft kill defences. Smaller cruise missiles mounted on fast attack craft can be employed in saturation roles to overwhelm escort vessels.
Iran also uses anti-ship ballistic missiles. These systems travel at approximately two to three times the speed of cruise missiles. Given the geographic proximity of Iranian launch sites to the Strait, engagement timelines are severely compressed. Reaction windows for air defence destroyers are limited, particularly under coordinated multi missile attack conditions.
In addition to ballistic and cruise missile capability, Iran possesses substantial unmanned aerial vehicle and unmanned surface vessel strike capacity. Large wave UAV attacks can overwhelm defensive systems through volume. When combined with ballistic missiles and explosive surface craft in mixed salvos, the defensive burden on escort vessels increases exponentially. Protecting both the warship and the escorted merchant vessel under such layered attack conditions becomes operationally complex and uncertain.
The horseshoe shaped traffic separation scheme within the Strait of Hormuz generates an approximate 270 degree threat arc during transit. Unlike more linear waterways, vessels may be exposed to threats from multiple bearings simultaneously. This significantly increases sensor coverage demands and complicates defensive fire control.
REGIONAL UPDATES (<12hrs)
Web Services says Iranian drone strikes hit 2 data centres in the UAE and a facility in Bahrain, disrupting cloud services across the Middle East.
Cyprus: 2 Missiles / 1 Drone
Oman: 2 Drones
Bahrain: 70 Missiles / 76 Drones
Iraq: unknown missiles / 12+ drones
Israel: 200~+ Missiles / 12+ Drones
Jordan: 13 Missiles / 36~ Drones
Kuwait: 178 Missiles / 384 Drones
Qatar: 104 Missiles / 39 Drones / 2x SU-24
Saudi Arabia: 5 Missiles / 12 Drones
Syria: 1+ Missile
UAE: 182 Missiles / 689 Drones
Totals
Missiles 755+
Drones 1,264+
Combined Minimum Projectiles: 2,019+
EOS Intelligence Assessment: Iran has likely used 25% of missile stocks based on an estimate of ~4,000 Ballistic and Cruise Missiles. Iran has significantly higher numbers of UAVs. Although the figure is unknown, it is likely close to 10,000 suggesting that Iran has used just 12% of its UAV capability. This does not account for munitions destroyed by US and Israel airstrikes. Additional, Iran has ~150 Ballistic Missile launchers which is the primary restriction on launching larger salvos. Iran’s focus is likely to preserve missile launchers by not distributing a large number at the same time in case of targeting by the US and Israel.
Saudi Arabia
Two (reports of 2–4) suspected Iranian drones hit the compound early 03 Mar (Tuesday morning local). Caused “limited fire” and minor material damage; no injuries. Saudi Defence Ministry confirmed. US Embassy issued immediate shelter-in-place orders for Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dhahran. US personnel safe; embassy operating with restrictions.
United Arab Emirates
US Citizens are being told to evacuate UAE. Embassy staff received the message after the US embassy in Riyadh was successfully attacked by Iran.
Iranian drone/missile waves (ongoing waves) and debris from intercepts struck civilian and military targets. Specifics include: – Damage/debris impacts on residential/high-rise complexes (Etihad Towers area and reports of Al Khalidiyah neighbourhood residential buildings). – Musaffah fuel tank terminal (industrial/residential-adjacent, Abu Dhabi) hit by drone ~12 hours ago resulting in a fire, no operational impact or injuries.
Bahrain
IRGC claims successful missile/drone strikes on US assets, including Sheikh Isa Air Base and Naval Support Activity Bahrain (US 5th Fleet HQ in Manama). Sirens active; booms reported in past hours. Earlier direct hits in this escalation phase damaged residential high-rises (e.g., Era tower area). Interceptions high, but confirmed infrastructure damage and civilian risk. Bahrain hosting US forces remains a primary target.
With thanks to EOS Risk Group for their permission to publish.